Maps of projected fish biomass change

Here we present the mean estimated changes in fish biomass across the entire FishMIP ensemble (including 10 ecosystem models) in relation to our reference period (mean between 2005-2014).

To see changes in the area of your interest, click on the group you want to visualise and select the area of your choice from the drop down list. You can also choose the emissions scenario and decade of decade of your interest.

Time series of fish biomass change

Select the area of your interest to see how fish biomass is estimated to change until 2100 under two emissions scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5.

The estimated change shown in the plot is the mean percentage change for FishMIP model ensemble in relation to the historical reference period (mean for the decade between 2005 and 2014). The shaded areas show the standard deviation across the 10 ecosystem models that form the FishMIP ensemble.

The horizontal grey dashed line shows no difference between a particular year and the reference decade (2005-2014). The vertical grey line shows the end of the historical period and the different emissions scenarios.

About this website

This tool shows estimates of fish biomass change under two different future climate scenarios: low emissions (SSP1-2.6) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). For each scenario, results shown are the mean percentage change across 10 ecosystem model simulations making up the FishMIP ensemble.

This tool was developed by FishMIP researchers Denisse Fierro Arcos, Gage Clawson, Camilla Novaglio & Julia Blanchard based at the Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS) at University of Tasmania. This tool supports the 'Climate Change Risks to Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries' report for the FAO published in July 2024, which can be accessed here.

Who is FishMIP?

The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) is an network of more than 100 marine ecosystem modellers and researchers from around the world. Our goal is to bring together our collective understanding to help better project the long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems, and to use our findings to help inform policy. You can find more information about FishMIP on our website.

How should I use this tool?

This site has three tabs that allow you to visualise and download our data at different levels of detail.
- The 'Global Map by Country' tab consists of country-level summaries of projected changes in fish biomass by the FishMIP ensemble.
- Dive deeper into our data by exploring projected fish biomass changes under the 'Map Changes by Marine Region' tab. Here, you can map changes for the Country and Territory Exclusive Economic Zone, FAO Major Fishing Area, or Large Marine Ecosystem of your choice.
- Compare two climate scenarios trajectories (low and high emissions) through time for the marine region of your choice in the 'Compare Scenarios Through Time' tab.

How should I cite data from this site?

You can download the data used to create the plots shown in this interactive tool using the 'Download' button included under each tab. As a condition of this tool to access data, you must cite its use. Please use the following citations:
- Fierro-Arcos D., Novaglio, C., Clawson, S.G., & Blanchard J.L. (2024). Shiny app to explore FishMIP climate change projections by country and marine regions.
- Novaglio, C., Fierro-Arcos D., Clawson, S.G., Blanchard J.L. & FishMIP (2024). Data and code used to produce maps and projections in FAO Technical Paper 707.

When using the data product in a publication, please include the following citation in addition to the data product citations provided above:
Blanchard, J.L., Novaglio, C., eds. (2024). Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Future projections from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 707. Rome, FAO.

Acknowledgments

The development of this tool was funded by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship Project FT210100798. We gratefully acknowledge contributions from coordinators and contributing modellers of the FishMIP and ISIMIP communities. We would also like to acknowledge the use of computing facilities provided by Digital Research Services, IT Services at the University of Tasmania.